Estimating chances of winning

In 2022, Eon Essay Contest received about 1,500 entries. Of these, only about 1,000 responded to the essay prompts. The rest were off-topic essays that students had written for another scholarship application or homework assignment. 

Essays were graded on a scale from 0 to 40. Essays could receive a maximum of 10 points for each of the following categories: 

    1) Knowledge;

    2) Writing style;

    3) Originality of ideas; and

    4) Depth and sophistication of analysis.

Less than 100 essays received a score of 30 or above. These well-written essays were likely to follow the tips outlined here and here. Simplifying greatly, if you submitted a well-written essay last year, you could guess that you had a 1% chance of winning the top prize, which is an expected value of $150. (This is simplified because the winners were not chosen randomly, and more prizes were on offer besides the top prize.) 

Hopefully this helps potential entrants decide whether to enter the contest. Of course, while money is a factor, it is not the only consideration when potential entrants decide how to spend their spare time. Another, often more important factor, is the learning opportunity on offer. All entrants to this contest are exposed to the important ideas discussed in The Precipice. If you find the book summary intriguing, this contest may be just the motivation you need to find the book at a local library and start reading it.